ArchivesD-Day in Belarus: What to expect?
What to expect on Saturday, March 25 in Minsk? The answer is a bit banal: nobody knows for sure. It is just a totally unpredictable situation with many possibilities and outcomes. A general opinion exists that on this day, Belarusian special police and KGB units will brutally suppress whatever demonstration might be on the streets of Minsk. The few factors support this line of thinking: first of all, Lukashenka is a control freak; second of all he won’t miss a chance to further intimidate opposition.
It is obvious that his regime learnt something from the “colored revolutions”: without leadership and coordinated actions nothing would shatter authoritative regimes. Now let’s look at the situation that developed on Friday. Most leaders from the opposition are not there because Lukashenka’s regime effectively put them behind the bars to serve 10-15 days thus familiar faces known for their leadership are not among protesters. It means that coordination is essentially a bit shattered.
Milinkevich and Kozulin are relatively new faces and nobody knows if they have what it takes to build strong, mass protest that won’t fade away in the few hours. By the way, as far as we know many complained that camp-town was poorly organized and thus doomed from the first day. Some expressed an opinion that a whole heroic action taken by the “camp dwellers” lacked strong leadership and support from political parties or figures. It was carried on the shoulders of ordinary courageous Belarusians who decided to take stand against Lukashenka’s regime. It is not an easy task to take on a strong regime without people who can direct masses and keep revolutionary sentiments fired up.
These are just the few points to keep in mind. However, all described above factors might mot necessarily be decisive. We simply do not know how many people will be there and how much do they want a change. We do not know for sure what would be regime’s reaction and actions against demonstrators. Sometimes one small thing fires up the few and in a matter of seconds there is a bonfire. Therefore, it is a bit premature to make predictions or verdicts. It is a moment, chance and God’s will…
March 25th, 2006 at 3:23 am
but above all the belarussians will…
maybe is better that they have no representative rulers. yuou know the word: i’ll beat the shepperd and the ships will spread.
i don’t know…
in Romania we didn’t have leaders in revolution. leaders came after ceausescu’s fall…
March 25th, 2006 at 3:29 am
what i want ask you for few days is how can belarussians get access to internet this days. there are internet cafe’s? they have internet at home?at work?
it is your site blocked by lukasenko’s regime?
you have a great responsability and honor because you heve the opportunity to inform correctly the belarussians and the rest of theworld of what is happening.
March 25th, 2006 at 8:26 am
Nick.
There is very limited access to the Internet in the country as “everything” is controlled by the government. They get to see what you watch. Most of the stuff on TV and radio is propaganda telling Belarussians how good they live.. etc.
Everything is generally spread by word of mouth.
During last demonstration sites of the opposition were actively being blocked (by GOV), attacked (DOS, hacked).
Not to mention that every call in and out of the country is being listed to.
TV reports there are a JOKE. They just make things up to make GOV look good. Just take a look at their reports what what was found on the square in the tents. (Condoms, drugs, pornos, alcohol.) This is ridiculous.
Jive Belarus!
March 25th, 2006 at 8:44 am
what is happening whith you, guys!?