On December 8, 1991, Boris Yeltsin, Stanislav Shushkevich and Leonid Kravchuk, the leaders of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, signed the Belavezha agreement which effectively dissolved the Soviet Union. As a result of this colossal event, Belarus, just like other former Soviet republics, not only acquired independence but also faced a crucial survival test. The republic inherited an economic system that owned much of its success to heavily subsidized energy, raw materials and internal Soviet markets that absorbed much of its production. Under mounting economic problems and socio-political pressure, a decision was made to abandon market reforms and move closer towards integration with Russia. This decision helped Belarus avoid economic shocks associated with market reforms, secured cheap Russian energy and guaranteed markets for Belarusian goods. However, reliance on Russian energy supplies as primary economic driver and short sighted strategic thinking put Belarus in a position where it stands to loose its national sovereignty.
Map of Belarus
Belarus is not a household name and it is not in the epicenter of international attention. It is a landlocked country, located East of Poland with a total population slightly less than 10 million and size of Kansas (CIA World Fact Book, 2008). It does not have any significant natural resources, nor does it have much of strategic importance for developed countries such as United States of America. However, its special relationship with Russia should be at the center of attention for those interested in Eastern European political and economic developments. Potential consequences of this relationship might show real goals of Russian foreign policy and how it uses energy leverage in order to push them through.
Back in 1996, Zbigniew Brzezinski, a geostrategist and national security advisor to President Jimmy Carter, analyzed potential modern Russian political developments in a chapter symbolically titled “The Black Hole” (Brzezinski, 1996). Brzezinski hoped that despite obstacles facing young Russian state, it would follow democratic principles and respect independent decision making in former Soviet republics. However, Brzezinski also admitted a serious possibility for Russia to reverse democratic reforms, attempt to extend political and economic influence in Eurasia and re-establish its traditional imperial status.
Twelve years later, it becomes more evident that the second possibility slowly develops into reality. In case of Belarus, an economic integration evolved into political concessions and then, loosely defined union between two states. While the much hyped state unification has yet to be finalized, Russian insistence and push for it is a troubling sign because despite recently displayed Belarusian hesitance towards a concrete political union, Russia has all necessary levers to make it happen. And if it does happen, than what seems to be right now a local political development might become a valuable lesson and wake up call for many other states around the globe.
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That would be very unfortunate to this Belarus being devoured by Russia, yet again(what that will be, 3rd time?) Hope this won’t happen.
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