Model III questions:
Model III looks and analyzes individuals and attempts to predict outcomes or possible course of action based on this analysis.
a) Whose opinion and views really count in making a particular economic or political decision?
Considering that incumbent Belarusian President remains in power for 14 years (as of 2008), it should be clear that Mr. Lukashenka is the most influential person when it comes to decision making in Belarus. Undoubtedly, he relies on “Siloviki” (Russian for strongmen, often with past or current connections to law enforcement or state security organizations). After all, they helped him to decimate local democratic opposition often using methods such as kidnapping and murders. However ultimately, president Lukashenka is a sole and undisputed decision-maker as evidenced by his willingness to remove his high-ranked and powerful lieutenants.

b) What factors influence a decision maker’s steps towards solving or addressing a particular problem?
Alexander Lukashenka and his government run directed state, somewhat centralized and guided by 5-year plans economy. A number of factors, including energy and barter deals with Russia, helped Belarus’ economy not only stay afloat but also bring additional revenues to the budget.
Considering such success, receiving general public support for sustained social services provided by the state and restoring its reputation as the soviet styled republic, encourages president Lukashenka to continue his largely unreformed, socially focused economic course and close integration with Russia.
Moreover, despite showing somewhat erratic behavior and playing games with West and generally accepted democratic principles, president Lukashenka understands that closer integration partners might hurt him. By moving closer to the West, he would need to accept various Western requirements involving economic liberalization, political openness and freedom of choice. These factors helped him to stay in power and have full control over Belarusian strategic decision-making.
He will play diplomatic games and allow some form of reforms to obtain financial and political concessions from the West, however, as history shows he is as quick to dismantle them as he is quick to adopt them.
questions:
Model III looks and analyzes individuals and attempts to predict outcomes or possible course of action based on this analysis.
a) Whose opinion and views really count in making a particular economic or political decision?
Considering that incumbent Belarusian President remains in power for 14 years (as of 2008), it should be clear that Mr. Lukashenka is the most influential person when it comes to decision making in Belarus. Undoubtedly, he relies on “Siloviki” (Russian for strongmen, often with past or current connections to law enforcement or state security organizations). After all, they helped him to decimate local democratic opposition often using methods such as kidnapping and murders. However ultimately, president Lukashenka is a sole and undisputed decision-maker as evidenced by his willingness to remove his high-ranked and powerful lieutenants.

b) What factors influence a decision maker’s steps towards solving or addressing a particular problem?
Alexander Lukashenka and his government run directed state, somewhat centralized and guided by 5-year plans economy. A number of factors, including energy and barter deals with Russia, helped Belarus’ economy not only stay afloat but also bring additional revenues to the budget.
Considering such success, receiving general public support for sustained social services provided by the state and restoring its reputation as the soviet styled republic, encourages president Lukashenka to continue his largely unreformed, socially focused economic course and close integration with Russia.
Moreover, despite showing somewhat erratic behavior and playing games with West and generally accepted democratic principles, president Lukashenka understands that closer integration partners might hurt him. By moving closer to the West, he would need to accept various Western requirements involving economic liberalization, political openness and freedom of choice. These factors helped him to stay in power and have full control over Belarusian strategic decision-making.
He will play diplomatic games and allow some form of reforms to obtain financial and political concessions from the West, however, as history shows he is as quick to dismantle them as he is quick to adopt them.

Related posts:

1. How do energy politics impact national sovereignty of Belarus? Model II
2. How do energy politics impact national sovereignty of Belarus? Model I
3. How do energy politics impact national sovereignty of Belarus? Introduction.
4. How do energy politics impact national sovereignty of Belarus? Situation overview
5. How do energy politics impact national sovereignty of Belarus? Soviet Success

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