So far everything goes according to the plan, albeit both sides proceed with caution and leave doors somewhat open for alternative decisions. NATO discussed and denied Georgia and Ukraine as potential members of the alliance at this point of time. However, these countries were promised eventual admission and some even say that we can see such move as early as December of 2008.

Putin, on the other hand, lived up to his alleged promises in case if Georgia and Ukraine join NATO and recognized some documents issued by separatist authorities in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and tightened links with businesses and organizations registered in the two pro-Moscow provinces. However he stopped short from fully recognizing sovereignty of these regions.

Obviously such move stirred a lot of emotions in Georgia, the EU and NATO. Georgian President already set up an emergency government meeting and Temur Iakobashvili, Georgia’s reintegration minister called it “violation of all international norms and interference with internal affairs. The US called it a “political mischief” while the EU and NATO voiced concerns and asked Moscow to reverse its decision. At the same time official Moscow announced that they simply attempted to strengthen their security and promote stability in the region. (RFE/RL)

In other words both sides moved towards their goals and flexed their muscles. And they both demonstrated their willingness to stir it up to some point. None really expressed a desire to make a bold move, at least for now, but all indicated a possibility. Now the question is what is or how high is the probability of it.

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